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Article: IN DEPTH: Could Apple become the world's biggest handset maker?
I don't think Apple has a chance of passing Samsung or even Nokia unless they seriously diversify. If they launch new lower-end handhelds aimed at less affluent markets - "The iPhone Junior!!" or something like that - then they stand a chance, but with their single smartphone offering they will have to settle for dominating the smartphone world alone. I work about 5 blocks from Juarez, Mexico, and let me tell you the people in poorer towns like Juarez are definitely not interested in iPhones - They want a $39.95 prepaid from WalMart. When Apple launches a $39.95 pre-paid at WalMart (something that is available from both Sammie and Nokia) then they may do something.
Funny how markets are similar...here, in Spain, Italy we don't have WalMart, but we do have the 39,00 Euros prepaid that sell like hotcakes... iPhone ? Yes, but that's for the affluent bourgeoisie...